AUD/USD To Trade With Positive Bias This Week

Analysis - AUD/USD (last 0.9152) is likely to trade with a positive bias this week as the daily MACD and stochastic indictors are bullish, although the latter is at the overbought level; meanwhile, the five-day moving average is above the 15-day moving average and rising. Resistance is at the Aug. 6 reaction high of 0.9221; a breach would expose the upside to 0.9324, the April 30 reaction high. An extension of the rise would target the April 12 reaction high of 0.9382. Support is at Thursday's low of 0.9052; a breach would temper the near-term positive outlook, exposing the downside to the 200-day moving average, now at 0.8937, and then to Tuesday's reaction low of 0.8858. An extension of the fall would target the 100-day moving average, now at 0.8808, and the Aug. 25 reaction low of 0.8769. AUD/USD medium-term outlook has tilted toward positive as the weekly stochastic measure has reverted to bullish mode at the overbought level, while the weekly MACD indicator remains bullish. A rise above the 0.9221 resistance would open the way up to 0.9405, the Nov. 16, 2009 top, and then to 0.9849, the July 15, 2008 post-float high in coming weeks. But a fall below the 0.8769 support would negate the medium-term positive outlook.