The Canadian dollar exchange rate comment September 6, 2010
USD/CAD to trade with bearish bias; trading conditions thin as U.S., Canada markets both closed for holidays. Loonie undermined by improved investor risk appetite, weak USD sentiment. But USD/CAD downside limited by softer oil prices (Nymex crude settled down 42 cents Friday at $74.60/bbl), reduced expectations of BOC rate hike Wednesday. USD/CAD daily chart negative-biased as stochastics falling from overbought; MACD staged bearish crossover against its exponential moving average. Support at 1.0377 (Friday''''s low, matching Aug. 20 low); breach would expose downside to 1.0241 (Aug. 19 reaction low), then 1.0102 (Aug. 5 reaction low) and 1.0010 (April 29 low). Resistance at 1.0453 (hourly chart); breach would expose upside to 1.0569 (Friday''''s high), then 1.0656 (Wednesday''''s high), 1.0677 (July 6 reaction high) and 1.0851 (May 25 reaction high).
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